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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their normal game plan.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

Our trusted projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 36.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to call just 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Sam Darnold has been one of the worst TD passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a miserable 0.36 per game while checking in at the 5th percentile.

The 49ers defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.18 per game last year.

The 49ers linebackers profile as the worst unit in the league last year in pass coverage.

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