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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -154.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Sam Darnold profiles as one of the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 68.2% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 79th percentile.

Sam Darnold has been one of the top touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 2.15 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Vikings, who are heavily favored by 7 points.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Vikings have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 32.8 per game) this year.

The Bears defense has conceded the 4th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game this year.

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