Sam Darnold TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+186/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -245.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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