Sam Darnold TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-155/+124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +143 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 33.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-least of all quarterbacks.