Sam Darnold Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-104/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
While Sam Darnold has been responsible for 3.1% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Seattle's running game in this contest at 8.4%.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (138 per game) versus the Broncos defense this year.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Denver's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

At a whopping 30.55 seconds per play, the Seahawks offense ranks as the 4th-slowest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
The model projects Sam Darnold to accrue 2.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Sam Darnold has generated a mere 4.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (18th percentile).
With a very bad record of 0.82 yards-after-contact (20th percentile), Sam Darnold has been among the bottom running QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.