Sam Darnold Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:17 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+217/-263).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -263.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects Sam Darnold to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this week's game (9.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.9% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Seahawks are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 54.0 per game on average).
This week, Sam Darnold is forecasted by the predictive model to garner the 6th-fewest rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 2.4.
Sam Darnold has grinded out a measly 6.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football among quarterbacks (23rd percentile).
With an atrocious rate of 0.85 yards-after-contact (20th percentile), Sam Darnold has been among the bottom rushing QBs in football since the start of last season.