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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.

Sam Darnold has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (12.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (0.0%).

Sam Darnold has rushed for significantly more yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (3.0).

This year, the imposing Chicago Bears run defense has conceded a meager 5.00 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 26th-smallest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league (37.5% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 56.1 per game on average).

Sam Darnold ranks as one of the weakest QBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 1.35 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.

The Chicago Bears safeties rank as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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