Sam Darnold Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-112/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (157 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to accumulate 2.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.

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