Sam Darnold Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 218.5 (-117/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 214.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 218.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
With a terrific 68.0% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL.
Sam Darnold grades out as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging an outstanding 8.87 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 55.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
At a whopping 30.55 seconds per play, the Seahawks offense ranks as the 4th-slowest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
The projections expect Sam Darnold to throw 33.1 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the imposing Denver Broncos defense has conceded a meager 218.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 8th-best in the league.
This year, the daunting Denver Broncos defense has allowed a meager 65.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-lowest rate in football.