Sam Darnold Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 4:22 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 227.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Seahawks grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
With an exceptional 68.9% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold has been as one of the best precision passers in the NFL.
Sam Darnold's passing efficiency has improved this year, compiling 9.57 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 8.17 rate last year.
This year, the feeble 49ers defense has given up the 10th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing teams: a massive 5.15 YAC.

Favors Under

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Seahawks are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a measly 54.0 per game on average).
This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a puny 6.9 yards.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.