Sam Darnold Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:17 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 233.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 232.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 233.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
Sam Darnold's 73.0% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a substantial progression in his throwing precision over last year's 67.9% mark.
Sam Darnold's throwing effectiveness has improved this season, accumulating 10.09 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 8.17 rate last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in the league (just 195.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Chargers defense since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Chargers defense has conceded a mere 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-smallest rate in football.