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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 246.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 261.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Sam Darnold is projected by our trusted projection set to average the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.5.

The Lions defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (42.2 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).

Sam Darnold's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 67.1% to 64.1%.

This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a puny 65.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

This year, the formidable Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to the opposing side: a feeble 6.6 yards.

The Lions safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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