My Account Log Out

reorder

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 219.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 215.5 @ -119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 4-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

With respect to a defense's influence on pace, at 28.14 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Vikings to be the 8th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.

Sam Darnold's 240.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents an impressive progression in his passing talent over last season's 33.0 rate.

Sam Darnold has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with an impressive 69.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 79th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.8 per game) this year.

Opposing offenses have passed for the 2nd-fewest yards in the league (just 155.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Jets defense this year.

The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 6.82 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

The Jets linebackers profile as the best LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

More Sam Darnold Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™