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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 229.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.15 seconds per play.

The Vikings O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The New York Giants pass defense has shown poor efficiency last year, giving up 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in football.

The New York Giants defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.52 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the 3rd-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

In logging a measly 4.7 pass attempts per game last year, Sam Darnold stands among the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL (5th percentile) by this measure.

Sam Darnold has been one of the weakest QBs in the NFL last year, averaging 33.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 5th percentile.

The New York Giants safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league last year in covering receivers.

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