Sam Darnold Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Pass Attempts

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-143/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Carolina Panthers have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 28.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.