Sam Darnold Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Pass Attempts

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Sam Darnold Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-109/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to use backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 30.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.