Sam Darnold Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Carolina Panthers

Pass Attempts

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 33.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-least of all quarterbacks.