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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Interceptions
Player Prop Week 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Sam Darnold Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB Sam Darnold in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have intercepted 0.47 balls per game this year, grading out as the 5th-worst defense in the league by this metric

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.4 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Sam Darnold to attempt 30.7 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

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