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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Completions
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.9% pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

With a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion% (86th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold ranks as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Jaguars defense this year (75.7% Adjusted Completion%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are anticipated by the model to run just 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.

The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (just 52.8 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.

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