Sam Darnold Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Sam Darnold

NFL · Player Props

Sam Darnold

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 15, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Sam Darnold Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
While Sam Darnold has been responsible for 3.1% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Seattle's running game in this contest at 8.4%.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Denver's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

At a whopping 30.55 seconds per play, the Seahawks offense ranks as the 4th-slowest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
The model projects Sam Darnold to accrue 2.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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