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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Sam Darnold Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

Sam Darnold has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this season (9.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to run on 37.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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