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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

While Sam Darnold has garnered 6.8% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Minnesota's run game this week at 12.5%.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (just 56.4 per game on average).

In totaling a puny 1.0 carries per game since the start of last season, Sam Darnold ranks among the bottom quarterbacks in football (8th percentile) when it comes to running volume.

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