Salvon Ahmed Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Salvon Ahmed

NFL · Player Props

Salvon Ahmed

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 8:02 PM EST

Analysis

Salvon Ahmed Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+3348/-4067).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 66.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Opposing squads have rushed for the fewest TDs in the league (0.38 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been excellent this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to pass on 54.1% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Right now, the 4th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (48.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the fierce Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a feeble 0.00 passing TDs per game to opposing running backs: the smallest rate in the NFL.

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