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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.

With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.61 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-fastest in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in the NFL.

Russell Wilson has been among the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.78 per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

The Ravens defense has been torched for the most passing touchdowns in football: 2.10 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.7% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects Russell Wilson to attempt 30.1 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.

The Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Russell Wilson's passing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 66.1% to 59.9%.

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