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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+158/-208).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +171 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +158.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projection model to run 66.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

With an exceptional rate of 1.73 per game (87th percentile), Russell Wilson ranks as one of the best TD passers in the NFL last year.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been terrible last year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.

The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

In this week's contest, Russell Wilson is expected by the projections to have the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.3.

The Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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