Russell Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.79 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 4th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

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