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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 182.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 181.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 182.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).

Russell Wilson's 235.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year represents a substantial progression in his throwing proficiency over last year's 208.0 mark.

Russell Wilson comes in as one of the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.76 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 81st percentile.

The Browns defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.

The predictive model expects Russell Wilson to throw 27.3 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

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