Russell Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 237.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 232.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 237.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the most yards in the league (264.0 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 37.2 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Russell Wilson's passing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 57.7%.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.94 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.