Russell Gage Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+142/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -188 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Russell Gage has been much less involved in his offense's pass attack this season (15.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.3%).
Russell Gage's pass-catching performance diminished this year, notching a mere 4.1 yards per game vs 5.2 last year.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.