Russell Gage Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+351/-684).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -655 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -684.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Gage to be a much smaller part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (15.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.6% in games he has played).
Russell Gage has notched far fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).
Russell Gage's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 53.2.
The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.