Russell Gage Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Russell Gage

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+363/-722).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -695 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -722.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Russell Gage has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which ranks in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Russell Gage has notched far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).
Russell Gage's 23.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.2.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) to wideouts this year (64.3%).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 2nd-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 0.46 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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