Roschon Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+351/-429).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 135.0 plays on offense called: the most on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 67.2 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (45.8 per game) this year.
Roschon Johnson has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 9.5% this year, which ranks him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 9th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.
The model projects Roschon Johnson to be a more important option in his team's run game near the end zone in this week's contest (23.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).
The Falcons pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.5%) vs. RBs this year (72.5%).
The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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