Roschon Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+568/-807).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Tyson Bagent.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are anticipated by the projection model to call 67.4 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 68.5 plays per game.
Roschon Johnson grades out in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs since the start of last season with an astounding 0.6% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
Since the start of last season, the weak Packers defense has been gouged for a colossal 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (47.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chicago Bears.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
While Roschon Johnson has earned 5.6% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Chicago's ground game near the end zone in this week's contest at 20.3%.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-most TDs in football (1.75 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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