Roschon Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1718/-2464).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
Roschon Johnson has earned a mere 0.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage since the start of last season, placing him in the 0th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the anemic New York Jets defense has allowed a massive 0.65 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the largest rate in football.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL in the red zone (46.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bears.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Roschon Johnson has been not been very involved his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 1st percentile among running backs.

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