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Roschon Johnson

Roschon Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Roschon Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.

With an exceptional 10.5% Target Rate (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Roschon Johnson ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.

Roschon Johnson has been one of the top pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

As it relates to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Los Angeles's group of DTs has been atrocious since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 55.8% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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