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Roschon Johnson
NFL · Player Props
Roschon Johnson
RB · Chicago Bears
Receptions
New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023 Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC
NFL Props Roschon Johnson Receptions

Roschon Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

Favors Over
  • The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
  • The predictive model expects Roschon Johnson to total 3.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
  • Roschon Johnson's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 79th percentile for running backs.
  • Roschon Johnson ranks as one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 2.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.
Favors Under
  • The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (75.5%) to running backs this year (75.5%).
  • The Saints linebackers grade out as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
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