Roschon Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
The predictive model expects Roschon Johnson to total 3.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Roschon Johnson's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 79th percentile for running backs.
Roschon Johnson ranks as one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an exceptional 2.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (75.5%) to running backs this year (75.5%).
The Saints linebackers grade out as the 7th-best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.