Roschon Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
With a remarkable 10.7% Target Share (86th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson places among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
With an excellent 2.8 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson ranks among the best running backs in the pass game in the league.
With an exceptional 91.7% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson rates among the best possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (79.6%).

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