Roschon Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
With an impressive 10.1% Target% (80th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
With an excellent 2.3 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson places as one of the top RBs in the pass game in the league.
The Lions safeties rank as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (70.3%) versus running backs this year (70.3%).

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