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Roschon Johnson

Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.

With an exceptional 10.5% Target Rate (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Roschon Johnson ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.

As it relates to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Los Angeles's group of DTs has been atrocious since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 55.8% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

When it comes to air yards, Roschon Johnson ranks in the measly 16th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -2.0 per game.

The Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Rams defense has given up the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 22.0) versus running backs since the start of last season.

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