Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Roschon Johnson is forecasted by the model to place in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs with 2.7 targets.
Roschon Johnson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.6% this year, which ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 10.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
When it comes to air yards, Roschon Johnson ranks in the paltry 17th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -2.0 per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.
With a feeble 3.8 adjusted yards per target (10th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson rates as one of the worst pass-game running backs in the league.