Rondale Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Rondale Moore

NFL · Player Props

Rondale Moore

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Rondale Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+297/-507).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -351 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -507.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Rondale Moore has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.9% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Rondale Moore has compiled far more air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (6.0 per game).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Rondale Moore's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.5% to 73.0%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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