Robert Woods Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Robert Woods

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Robert Woods Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The projections expect Robert Woods to notch 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Robert Woods has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.4% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Robert Woods's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, averaging 4.5 adjusted receptions vs a measly 3.2 last year.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.
Robert Woods's 60.2% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a a substantial decline in his receiving ability over last year's 66.5% mark.
The Falcons safeties rank as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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