Robert Woods Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Robert Woods

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Woods has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Robert Woods's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 66.1% to 69.1%.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Robert Woods has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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