Robert Woods Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Robert Woods

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+289/-502).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +323 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +289.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Robert Woods has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.5% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 7th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
Robert Woods has put up quite a few less air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Robert Woods's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.2% to 62.4%.

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