Robert Woods Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+291/-508).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +296 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +291.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Woods has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.6% this year, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Robert Woods's 46.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 75th percentile for wide receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Robert Woods has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.