Robert Tonyan Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1900/-2122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.
This year, the strong Buccaneers run defense has yielded a feeble 0.40 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-smallest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.
As it relates to air yards, Robert Tonyan grades out in the measly 10th percentile among TEs this year, averaging just 0.0 per game.
Robert Tonyan ranks in just the 12th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a subpar 0.9 figure this year.
This year, the tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a paltry 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.