Robert Tonyan Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 7, 2026 8:57 AM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2244/-3474).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
The Steelers have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 58.8 plays per game.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Indianapolis's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected by the projection model to call only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 8th-fewest on the slate this week.
Robert Tonyan has posted a measly 0.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Robert Tonyan's 1.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in the NFL: 13th percentile for tight ends.
This year, the deficient Colts run defense has given up a monstrous 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 8th-largest rate in football.

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