Robert Tonyan Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+3700/-4700).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the best in football since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns run defense has given up a puny 0.70 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cleveland's safety corps has been atrocious since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers since the start of last season (a lowly 54.6 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
While Robert Tonyan has received 11.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much less involved in Pittsburgh's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest at 1.3%.
In regards to air yards, Robert Tonyan ranks in the lowly 2nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.0 per game.