Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.2%) vs. TEs this year (78.2%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have just 120.4 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.2 per game) this year.
Robert Tonyan Jr.'s 22.1% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a a material drop-off in his pass game utilization over last season's 60.5% figure.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

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