Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accumulate 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (15.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.7%).
Robert Tonyan's receiving talent has gotten better this season, averaging 4.4 yards per game compared to a mere 2.3 last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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